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What are the stocks with the greatest potential for 2024?


December 26, 2023 – 00:00

Looking ahead to 2024, analysts consulted by Ámbito warn that the S&P Merval is overvalued with respect to current country risk levels and following this analysis it should be more than 30% below the current 1,000 points, so part of the Evolution will depend on the measures taken to reorganize the macro and reduce the deficit throughout the year.

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The Argentine stocks They managed to consolidate their recovery and show exceptional profits throughout 2023. The S&P Merval index accumulates an increase of around 70% in dollars in the year. It occurred within the framework of an improvement in the international context due to the brake on the rate hike of the United States Federal Reserve due to the slowdown in inflation, which boosted equity assets globally. On the other hand, the local context went through the volatility typical of an election year, although it boosted Argentine stocks in the face of coverage searches and caused the local stock index to grow above the CPI.

Looking ahead to 2024, analysts consulted by Ambit They warn that the S&P Merval It is overvalued with respect to the current country risk levels and following this analysis it should be more than 30% below the current 1,000 points, so part of the evolution will depend on the measures taken to reorganize the macro and reduce the deficit throughout the year. Likewise, they highlight that part of the performance will depend on the monetary policy carried out by the Fed throughout the year and the impact on the US economy. In that framework, They highlight the upward potential of energy papers, linked to the agricultural and food business.

Julio Roque Calcagninoresearch analyst at TSA Stock Market, highlighted: “Global markets are on track to close a great 2023. At the close of last Wednesday, December 20, the STOXX Global accumulated a rise of 19.4% for the year, while the S&P 500 added 22.4%. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), with a significant weighting of shares of Asian companies accumulated 2.5%, a weak figure in relation to the iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF), which appreciated 23.5%, surpassing not only the equities of emerging countries in general, but also the American S&P 500. For their part, both US Treasuries and bonds from emerging countries showed weak dynamics, in relation to equities. However, none of these assets managed to perform as well as Merval in dollars.”

Regarding the evolution that is expected going forward, Juan Pablo Irrazabal, financial advisor in Bull Market Brokers, He pointed out that “2024 is going to be a year of adjustment” and that “the main protagonist is going to be inflation, which was already very high and now without price controls and subsidies, it will begin to grow at high speed in a short time.” ”. “I wouldn’t be surprised to have 100% in the first quarter of the year. It will undoubtedly be the most uncontrolled variable of the year and that is why I believe that the food and energy sector is the one that has the most potential in the Argentine market,” he predicted.

In addition, Roberto Luis Geretto, portfolio manager at CMF Asset Management, considered: “By 2024, a priori the sectors that can gain the most traction are those linked to agricultural activity and energy with regulated prices. In the first case, it is due to the expected good harvest and better exchange rate for the sector. In the second case, because the tariff recomposition will help improve the economic equation of these companies.”

For your part Roque Calcagnino He stressed that the evolution will be conditional on the long-awaited “soft landing” in the US and that a recession in that country will be avoided. He indicated that we will surely be able to witness a favorable year for Latin American assets, although it will not be the same for the Fed to lower rates entering a recession as with an expanding economy.

Regarding the Argentine case, Calcagnino analyzed what level of the Merval corresponds to the current country risk levels to evaluate the valuations: “Specifically, if we analyze the relationship between these variables, from the beginning of 2018 to the present, we find that, with an EMBI of approximately 1,873 basis points, The Merval in dollars should be around 519 points. Likewise, given that country risk has recently reflected difficulties in the public sector, if we carry out the same analysis for a shorter window of time and taking the differential between the yields of negotiable obligations and the rates of US Treasuries, the Current levels do not represent opportunity valuations either. However, the consensus prices among analysts and investment banks do see upside potential in some papers, such as BBAR, CEPU, CRES, TS, CAAP, DESP, LOMA, MELI and VIST.”





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