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Consumer Confidence at the bottom: it falls 16.2% in December

December 28, 2023 – 09:38

In November, the CCI was 5.3% compared to October, which represented its biggest advance in five months.

Mariano Fuchila

Sebastian AugusteDirector of the UTDT Finance Research Center, highlighted the abrupt reversal of the positive trend that had been observed since April 2023. Despite the fact that until November the CCI showed an accumulated growth of 28.1% in the yearwith a single drop in September, the sharp decrease in December interrupted this dynamic, although the annual balance still records an increase of 10.87% compared to December 2022.

Auguste also pointed out the influence of the political situation on the expectations of those surveyed, since the current measurement incorporates the result of the election and the inauguration of the new president, which could have influenced the perception of the economic situation.

ICC: historical comparisons

Regarding historical comparisons, the parallelism with other electoral cycles was highlightedwhere accelerations in positive expectations were observed prior to the elections followed by subsequent contractions. This phenomenon, similar to what occurred in 2015 and 2019, shows a pattern of expectations and reactions after the elections.

The detailed analysis of the subindices reveals that the fall in the CCI was mainly due to the decrease in the Durable Goods and Real Estate subindex, with a decrease of 44.72% at the national level compared to November and a year-on-year decrease of 35.28%. This subindex, vital for family consumption, marked a significant downward trend.

Another component analyzed was the Personal Situation Subindex, which showed a monthly decrease of 6.69% but an annual increase of 5.44%. For its part, the Macroeconomic Situation Subindex, which evaluates future expectations, had a monthly drop of 6.69%, but it registered the largest accumulated increase in the yearwith a positive variation of 47.66%.

The analysis by region revealed that the drop in the CCI was widespread across all geographic areas and income levels. However, The Interior was the region with the greatest accumulated increase in the year, followed by GBA and finally by CABA, with the Macroeconomic Situation Subindex being the key factor in this growth.

In summary, the decrease in the Consumer Confidence Index during December 2023 reflects a worrying situation, influenced by various political and economic factors, affecting all regions and socioeconomic levels of the country.

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