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The Treasury faces foreign currency maturities of almost US$17 billion in 2024


They correspond to commitments with the IMF, public securities, the Paris Club and other organizations. The BCRA bought almost US$2.9 billion since Milei took office, but reserves are scarce.

Telam

Days ago, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoconfirmed on his social network account On January 9, the maturity of almost US$1.6 billion will be paid to the bondholders restructured by Martín Guzmán. Although so far Government of Javier Mileiand megadevaluation Through the Central Bank managed to sustain daily dollar purchases accumulating close to US$2.9 billionthe Government faces a 2024 of large maturities of public debt in foreign currency that vastly exceed the holdings of the monetary authority, still in negative territory. The large payment obligations will require a rapid pace of reserve recovery.

In 2024, The Treasury will have to face maturities in foreign currency for about US$16.8 billion. With the International Monetary Fundthe maturities total US$7.5 billion. Regarding public securities, the maturities add US$4,440 million, although about half is in the hands of the public sector. And the remaining US$5,000 million correspond to obligations with the Paris Club and other organisms.

Santiago Manoukianhead of research at Ecolatina, analyzed the flow of foreign currency: “The disbursements of the IMF between December 2023 and December 2024 They would currently total almost US$6.6 billion (December is missing), so contemplating the payment that Argentina already made in December (US$920 million), the net payments to Fund in this period totals about US$1.9 billion in truth (payments of US$8.5 billion, disbursements of US$6.6 billion). All this will depend on the rediscussion of the agreement, where The Government could seek, for example, to avoid making net payments to the organization this year”.

The months with greater demand for maturities will be January and July. In January, commitments are close to US$4,000 million. The payment to IMF should be approximately US$2,000 million. In addition, the Government will face coupon payments and the first amortization installment to bondholders for almost US$1.6 billion. The rest corresponds to debt with the Paris Club and other international organizations. As for July, the approximate maturities will be US$3.9 billion. Of that total, US$2.8 billion corresponds to obligations with bondholders, US$500 million maturing with the Background and the remnant with him Paris Club and other entities. The following months the amounts are less large but challenging for a Central Bank with negative net reserves.

Since the assumption of Javier Milei, the BCRA accumulated purchases for almost US$2.9 billion. This amount would allow the obligations with the bondholders to be met on January 9.

Perspectives

Pedro Siaba Serratehead of Research & Strategy PPI, He noted that, despite these purchases, net reserves are still negative at around US$9.7 billion. “However, the market always gets ahead of itself and therefore focuses on the outlook for the coming months, where we should observe greater fiscal prudence, a potential normalization of the exchange market and a very satisfactory gross harvest. This context, which promises a greater accumulation of reservesand lower financing needs, allows it to be optimistic regarding payments in 2024,” he stated.

In perspective, for the following years, according to information from Portfolio Personal Inversiones, 2024 is the year with the lowest amount of maturities in the next decade. According to the agreement with the Fund until the moment the note is made, the maturity profile in foreign currency amounts to US$17.5 billion in 2025, US$18.2 billion in 2026a peak of US$22.2 billion in 2027 and US$21.7 billion in 2028. Until 2035 the maturities do not decrease US$14 billion per year between maturities with the IMF, bonds and other multilateral organizations.





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