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Capital flight was the lowest in 20 years

Latest Exchange Balance of Central Bank (BCRA) corresponding to last November showed a positive balance in terms of capital outflow of US$5 million. In this way, in the first eleven months of 2023, the so-called “Net asset formation of residents of the non-financial private sector” (FAE) or also known as hoarding reached the US$1,055 million, which is 21% more than in the same period of 2022.

Therefore, the management of Alberto Fernandez ended with more entries than exits but the total balance of the four years was negative in US$5,328 million. All this despite the empire of the exchange super stocks. This is the lowest record in the last two decades.

In this regard, it is worth remembering that the Also called “capital flight”in the jargon of the financial market, totaled almost US$89,000 million in the Macri era, only comparable with the two administrations of Cristina Kirchner which totaled more than US$83.7 billion (71,162 million between 2007-2011 and 12,558 million between 2011-2015) since the era Néstor Kirchner barely exceeded US$13,000 million.

What happened last November during the electoral process? The FAE recorded a result surplus of US$5 million product of net income in concept of foreign currency for US$102 million and of net purchases of tickets for US$97 million. The result of banknotes was also explained by the net purchases of natural persons by US$192 millionwhich were partially offset by net sales of legal entities for US$95 million.

natural persons They bought tickets for US$200 million (7% less than in October, but 76% more year-on-year) and They made sales for US$8 million. Regarding the number of people who operated, 789,000 individuals bought tickets, while some 114,000 sold.

On the other hand, the net income from own accounts abroad (for US$102 million) is explained mainly by the net transfers received by the “Real Sector excluding Oilseeds and Cereals” for US$60 millionfrom “Institutional Investors and others” for US$30 millionof “natural persons” by US$11 million and US$1 million from the “Oilseeds and Cereals” sector.

But in total, individuals bought net US$688 million, mainly for travel expenses and other consumption made with cards with non-resident suppliers (with a net result of US$481 million) and for hoarding (with a net result of US$481 million). US$192 million for ticket purchases). While the “Institutional investors and others”, both residents and non-residents, made net sales of US$32 million.

Regarding the “Financial sector” the operations turned out to be deficient in US$182 million due fundamentally to the increase in the liquid external assets of the entities that make up the General Exchange Position (PGC) for US$144 millionthe net expenditures for foreign direct investment for US$50 million, for the net purchase of securities for US$15 million and for net payments of loans to organizations international for US$6 millionall of this barely offset by the net income from financial loans for US$32 million. Thus, the entities ended the month with a stock of PGC of US$5,882 million, 3% more than in October.

“The result was explained by the increase in the ownership of foreign exchange for US$212 million, partially offset by the drop in the holding of banknotes for US$68 million,” highlighted the BCRA. Possession of currency notes foreigners totaled US$4,663 million at the end of the month representing the 79% of the PGC and which is kept by banks to meet the movements of deposits in foreign currency and the needs of the exchange market. The banks closed with a forward sold position in foreign currency for US$259 millionreducing it by US$43 million.

The banks They bought US$568 million from “Forwards” clients and sold US$525 million in institutionalized markets. Foreign banks closed with a net sold position of US$119 million (+US$13 million) while the nationals bought US$56 million and decreased their net sold position up to US$140 million.

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