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the dilemma of savers and the horizon of the coming months


The decline of the traditional fixed term was not solely linked to the drop in the rate. From the consulting firm LCG, they point out that this is a trend “from several months ago” and that it has intensified since November. acceleration of inflation Since then it was signaling the need for a change in strategy for the investor.

In contrast, according to market data, since December 15, the UVA fixed term placements increased by 76%.

By observing this migration of traditional fixed term at UVA, The Central Bank added another measure: it confirmed the modification of the minimum term and established that deposits must be made within 180 days with the possibility of pre-cancelling it after 30. This implies that if a saver makes a pre-cancellable UVA fixed term they will receive the interest rate established for this financial tool, which will be provision of each bank, given that the minimum rate was eliminated. This also generated a certain disincentive for those who also observe the movements of the dollar and they seek to cover themselves with the best instrument available to them.

UVA fixed term vs dollar: between the opportunity cost and the emergence of inflation

In principle, it must be said that the UVA fixed term It has the advantage that it follows inflation and provides +1% annually. It is usually a good option for conservative profiles.

“He UVA fixed term stock practically it doubled during December. But they were disincentivized with measures such as the reduction of the minimum pre-cancellation rate or the extension of the minimum permanence period to 180 days. Theoretically there would be less investment with the possibility of tie up capital for so long“, he expressed Andrés Reschinianalyst at F2 Soluciones Financieras, in dialogue with Ambit.

The Economist Federico Glustein, For his part, he contributed that the UVA fixed term It covers against escalating inflation but does not provide a “real return.”

In that sense, he highlighted that the freezing of funds for 180 days made the opportunity cost of those six months “be elevated.”

With $50,000 saved, is it better to open a fixed term or buy dollars?

The fixed term in a trap for the months of placement: is it advisable to take a PF now?

Dollar: what to expect in the coming months

For Glustein, “if we evaluate this investment period, it is advisable to adjust to dollarized instruments for the next 2 or 3 months, in which an increase is expected due to several factors: high inflation via pass through of the December devaluation; a new agreement with the Monetary Fund (IMF) that maintains a high exchange rate and a Government that, on several occasions, spoke of favorable terms of trade, that is, exploiting what grants foreign currency and “The best way to stabilize is with a high exchange rate.”

“That is why the crawling peg 2% falls short for February and there could be a liberalization of the exchange rate. So, for the next 2 or 3 months, better dollarized instruments, which could be combined with others, such as CER bonds,” he concluded.





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