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At what parities does the market consider it attractive?


Investors and managers shuffle and give again. Today the result of the third tender will be known.

Thus, this new tender is reached even without reference prices, only with a few small “bid” (sale) positions around 60 and 70 dollars. With these discreet secondary market references, the 1816 analysts assume, for example, that if the Bopreal can be sold in the secondary for $65then the CCL dollar implicit in the bonus is $1,254as a result of multiplying the official dollar of $814 for technical value of 1.54 (1.0018/0.65). This, of course, before taking into account the possibility of accessing the MULC for 5% of the tendered value (as of February and for those who have purchased bonds for at least 50% of their commercial debt) and the access to the CCL dollar by the difference between the market price and the nominal value (just starting in April). But although there is still no secondary market price, the people of IEB sees value in Bopreal since possibly in the short term the gap will increase: the magnitude of the gap is key to the attractiveness of the bond since allows you to earn the differential between the official dollar at which the tender is entered and the CCL dollar.

Furthermore, it is a bond with “BCRA risk” in contrast to “risk Treasure” of hard dollar bonds while granting the optionality in the future of rescue them against pesos to the official dollar. In this case, assuming a 70 dollar paritythe implicit dollar at which the tender is made (subscribing pesos to the official adjusted by the technical value) is located at $1,165. If you can sell the bond in the secondary to 60 dollars the implicit dollar increases to $1,359.

The parity of Bopreal balance with Current exchange rate gap (48%) is 67.5 dollars, which gives an implicit exchange rate of $1,208. In this case the analysts of IEB They confronted the Bopreal against the hard dollar sovereigns and against the linked dollar bonds and conclude that: in the first case for the performance of Bopreal 1 is arbitrated within the hard dollar sovereign curve (approx. 34.5) should operate with a parity of 45% since with a parity of 60% the return drops to less than 23% and with a parity of 70 to just over 17%, while the hard dollar 2030 bonds today they yield between 35% and 42%; so that a priori at 70 dollars, Bopreal looks expensive. Of course, when taking into account the lower risk (BCRA vs. Treasury), plus the possibility of accessing dollars to settle commercial debts, the option in the future to be able to redeem them in pesos to the official dollar of that moment, converting it into a linked dollar bondparities between 60%/70% are then justified. While in the second case, through primary bidding, a parity of 100.18% in pesosa parity that is attractive when compared against a longer linked dollar such as TV25 that operates at 107.38%, then in terms of performance the Bopreal valued as dollar linked offers a return of 4.9% against -3.5% for TV25.

For its part, the NEIX people revalued BROPREAL from asking the question, stock or flow, but within the entire valuation it also contemplated a point that is not minor, which is where the tax benefits that this bond has on the BONARES. According to the BCRA, The technical value of the bond and the highest value between the official dollar and the financial dollar at that time will be taken. The decree that regulates this benefit indicates that the calculation at technical value will be made from April 30, 2025 for Series 1A, from April 30, 2026 for Series 1B and April 30, 2027 for Series 1C. “As the dates for compute the tax benefit are the same as when the put option can begin to be exercised by the holder in each strip (separation), the resulting flow is not very different from that resulting from exercising optionality on each strip on the stipulated dates,” they explain.

In other words, The “bid” that is not placed by the AFIP is placed by the BCRA if options are exercised. Assuming that on the dates on which AFIP takes the Bopreal quote at the technical value there is no gap, at a price of 75 today the yield would be 17.5% much lower than the rest of the dollar bonds. “That is to say, even with the tax benefitIf you have a positive view on dollar debt, Bopreal is not the best vehicle to capture an increase in these bonds. So, where would the price of Bopreal be: the “bids” suggest a price of market from 70 to 75 dollars while NEIX A value of 50 to 55 dollars is considered appropriate based on the comparative analysis with the rest of the debt in dollars. Therefore this difference could remain for a long time, warn the manager’s analysts.





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