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The market foresees an impact on financiers after the decision to withdraw the fiscal chapter of the omnibus law


On Friday, just before the markets closed, financial dollars as well as blueclosed a week on the downside, with falls of more than 4% for the Counted with Liqui (CCL) and more than 3% for the MEP. That same day, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoannounced that he was retiring fiscal chapter of the omnibus law, something that left the Government exposed to not being able to obtain the votes necessary for its approval. This Monday, what the market will read is crucial.

Analysts predict overheating, possibly moderatein parallel exchange rates as a consequence of this change in fiscal direction. Despite this, they emphasize that the approval of the text that will be discussed on Tuesday in Congress remains essential.

This downward trend in free dollars occurred in a climate of tension in the Chamber of Deputies while the aforementioned law was being discussed, andto good bidding of the Bonus for importers (BOPREAL). The CCL and MEP sank to $50 on Friday and recorded its biggest weekly drop in three monthsafter the successful fifth tender for that title, in which the Central Bank placed US$2,454 million.

Luis Caputo’s decision under the scrutiny of analysts

As the economist explains Natalia Motyl in statements to Ambit “There were two sides to the fiscal chapter. On the one hand, the money laundering and the moratorium” ensured the entry of local capital that the country so desperately needed, which is committed to reducing the fiscal deficit, for the analyst, “this could compromise the accounts.” prosecutors”.

Motyl maintains that if the market incorporates this information, “most likely to react unfavorably“This is explained by the fact that by removing these points, the Government would be one step away from not being able to balance the accounts this year, which, without a doubt, would be transferred in upward pressure on financial dollars.

The other side, and what generated the most controversy among market analysts, were the reduction of income taxes and withholdings. Motyl indicates that this had “a revenue objective that could negatively impact private sector activity.”

Luis Caputo Casa Rosada

Photo: Juan Vargas – NA.

“Argentina is at a point where collecting more taxes It only reduces the possibilities of the economy in job creation and opening of new investment projects.“, maintains the director of NM Consultora. In addition, it negatively affects regional economies “in a country that is going to experience stagflation.” This, according to Motyl’s view, “could affect the productive structure outside of Buenos Aires and the fabric social”, which would reduce the waistline for the rest of the reforms.

As it is, for Motyl to have removed them from the fiscal package “It’s a positive point“. But now, should compensate for negative pressure, in part, on the side of money laundering. “One estimates that financial dollars will rise, but not strongly,” she warns.

Dollar: tasteless in the market and a blow to assets

For the analyst Christian ButlerCaputo’s decision “obviously“complicates the Government’s plan to close the fiscal deficit or forces it to have to make more cuts in spending, given that income They will not be able to get on due to the withdrawal of this package.

For the analyst consulted by this means, although the good fiscal package is presented later, the Government has already lost the time and the chance to start running as soon as possible, which translates into “less income that will be able to be obtained by that kind.” For Buteler, “It is not going to be a measure well received by the market“On the contrary, “it is very likely that The market sees it with concern and obviously the assets react that way.“.

Martín Polo, head of Strategy at Cohen, thinks the same: “The sign is bad: from a political point of view it marks a weakness, or a strength that they wanted to show, but that did not exist.“.

Finally, the economist Federico Glustein concludes that, “the market is not going to react positively, because it is a clear example of the loss of political power”, on the one hand, but also the lack of an alternative plan.

For Glustein, “the Government seems weak, in showing that you can put a system of counterweights to the problems that are in the macro and repeats mantras that do not come close to political reality.” So, there is distrust and uncertainty in what may happen, therefore, the impact will occur in Parallel quotes, as well as an approval of the modified project, can calm the rise a little.





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