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How much can it go according to the market?


He Dolar blue climbed in January $170 (+17%) to $1,195, although it was below the inflation projected for this month, which is around 20%. In this context, investors are wondering what could happen in February, since price increase forecasts remain in double digits.

A factor that will definitely influence the parallel currency price is the result of the discussion in Congress of the omnibus law-which had its first chapter this Wednesday in Deputies- and the possible approval or rejection of the adjustment megaproject sent from the Executive to launch his economic program.

Blue dollar in February: what can happen if the omnibus law is approved?

In the event that the ruling party manages to approve the megaproject of the so-called omnibus lawwhich is currently left without the tax chapter to achieve greater consensus in the Chambers, It is possible that the blue dollar will remain close to its current price, They say in the market.

With the approval of the standard, Javier Milei would have his first victory in the legislative field, which would add confidence to his economic program. In that sense, the economist Federico Glustein stated in dialogue with Ambit that “the market has a lot of expectations”, which is why, if the initiative is approved “the blue dollar could fall slightly in February” and be in the orbit of $1,100. “Part of the Government’s firepower is put into the approval of this regulation“he added.

For the economist Gustavo Berif approved, it is possible that “go through a period of greater calm“, with the Dolar blue, in the short term around $1,200.

Meanwhile, the economist and operator of PR Corredores de Cambio, Gustavo Quintanaemphasized the seasonality of this month: “There is usually a lower demand for pesos,” which is why “it is possible that the exchange rate tends to rise.”

And he added that It is normal for “the situation to become complicated” if there are political tensionsin this case, derived from the possibility that the package of laws sent by the Executive will not be approved.

Blue dollar in February: what can happen if the omnibus law is not approved?

In case the Congress veto the megaproject there may be a extra pressure on the parallel market and the Dolar blue tend to take a leap, since as Quintana mentioned, in addition to seasonality, the political-economic tension that would exist would play a role.

Ber predicted that, if the norm is not approved, “bullish rearrangement could intensify“and located to the free dollar close to $1,400.

For his part, Glustein highlighted that an increase above $1,300 is possible, but he emphasized the possibility that the disbursement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) helps contain tensions, along with settlement of field currencies.

In this way, the possibility of containing the price of the currency will be, on the one hand, in Congress with the approval of the omnibus law – which the Government hopes will be finalized in mid-February – and on the other, with the disbursement of US$4.7 billionwhich the IMF specified the day before.

Another factor that could positively affect the price of the blue dollar is the liquidation of the fieldalthough with the fall of price of soybeans and corn at lowest levels in years, it is possible that it will moderate.

Finally, market analysts agreed that the pressure of parallel exchange rates It also has to do with the fact that instruments in pesos have a negative returnas are the Fixed deadlineswhich is why it will also play positively low inflation.

In this context, it is worth noting that from the central bank they stated that they would keep the crawling-peg at 2% and? they would not raise the ratewith which the liquefaction of the fixed deadlines will remain and for this they need the real rate is negativeas is the case until now.





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