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Nicolas Dujovne analyzed Luis Caputo’s management and gave his opinion on the dollar, inflation and the exchange rate stocks


February 5, 2024 – 10:12

The former Minister of Finance of Mauricio Macri analyzed the main variables of the economy more than a month after the start of Javier Milei’s Government.

The former Minister of Finance of Mauricio Macri and architect of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nicolas Dujovne gave an interview and gave his opinion on the exchange rate and the inflation.

According to the former minister, Caputo began his administration with a “very powerful” fiscal plan that, according to his perspective, follows the logic of: “I make a strong fiscal announcement, I begin to show results and that allows me later normalize the monetary and exchange rate that is still similar to that of the previous government.”

Last week, Dujovne asked on his Twitter account that the Government clarify how it would be replaced with the resources it loses with the approval of the omnibus law. In that sense, in dialogue with Clarion He reaffirmed “I think it is important to show how they will fulfill the promise beyond the commitment because, and I insist, that I was going to increase withholdings, restore profits and make money laundering plus a moratorium, I had chosen that because the alternatives were more difficult or more expensive. But once that setback happens it is important that they show the alternatives.”

Fiscal deficit

Despite the Government’s optimism, Dujovne is suspicious that an adjustment of almost 6 points of GDP will be achieved: “I don’t see that they are going to reach fiscal balance this year. Surely they will say yes but at the end of the year we will see” and he exemplified how it can approach that level of adjustment: “The Government can achieve two points of GDP between stepping on public works, the Empower Work program and lowering transfers to public companies. I don’t see much structural reform as, for example, Gustavo Lopetegui (NE: former advisor to the Mauricio Macri government in 2015-2019) did. Add to that the fact that there is no parity in teachers. “Not much more than two points.”

For Dujovne, this year we can aspire to a “primary surplus” and growth would be achieved in 2025: “In 2025 Argentina could grow quite strongly if it normalizes fiscal accounts and that could give impetus to reach financial balance.”

omnibus law

According to Dujovne, it was a mistake: “The social sustainability of the program is very, very important. Milei proposes the most radical reforms of the last 20 years and the lowest participation in Congress that an elected president has in the history of contemporary history. The The Government is in a process of learning how to handle this situation because I think it was a mistake to send the entire macroeconomic stabilization package that they chose and a lot of reforms. I repeat separately the Government could have achieved more in terms of the macro stabilization package”.

Dollar

The former minister maintains that the strategy of depreciating andthe exchange rate should have been a kick to release “a good part of capital control” and go to a permanent unified exchange rate scheme. “That could have been done from the start. In the end the accumulated inflation would be lower.”

Inflation

“The risk of a hyperinflationary spiralization“, highlighted the economist. However, he warned: “I don’t know what level of lowest inflation we are going to because there is still uncertainty in the exchange rate, it is clear that we are not in a definitive regime. So the hypermarket was avoided but the exchange rate uncertainty continues. Even beyond the level of the exchange rate, it is evident that we are going to move to a different regime and we do not know if it is floating or what. “The President still talks about dollarization, something that also generates uncertainty.”





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