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the Central Bank returns to report the gurus’ forecasts at the beginning of the month


February 6, 2024 – 10:30

From the BCRA they assured that the adaptation in publication times only aims for respondents to stop “predicting the inflation that has already happened and concentrate on better estimating next month’s inflation.”

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This is announced on the Central Bank site (www.bcra.gob.ar) in its publications section. In addition to the calculations of the inflation last month, of the current and the year, the REM also accounts for thes estimates from consultants on the Gross Domestic Product, the variation of the dollar and rates, among other variables.

In this way, the decision of the previous management of publishing the REM the same day that the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) disseminates the variation of the retail price index (CPI-Cost of Living) always since its formulation.

In it Government of Mauricio Macri, The REM was made based on a survey of consulting firms and investment houses in the last days of each month, and the results of their estimates were announced in the first 10 days of the following month, later than.

But in July of last year, and before the simultaneous and mandatory open primaries (PASO) were held that mark the beginning of the electoral race, the management of Miguel Pesce The head of the BCRA decided that the inflation estimates would be released on the same day that the Indec reports the price variation.

On that occasion, the BCRA assured that the adaptation in publication times It only aims for respondents to stop “forecasting inflation that has already happened and concentrate on better estimate next month’s inflation” so as not to have to go around doing recalculations month after month due to having overestimated and underestimated the CPI of the previous month.





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