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They reveal YPF’s 4×4 plan to export for US$30,000 million and take the action to US$60


Beyond the Estensoro privatization plan of the nineties, what is sought with this model is to have a profitable and thriving company, with a long-term view. “Privatization is a political issue, it does not concern us,” they acknowledge. The case Petrobras It is inspiring: since 2013 it has not stopped growing, it increased production twice from 2016 to 2020 and will double it again by 2029. A similar situation was experienced Chevron. The key? shore up Dead cow with more activitydivest conventional mature areas of Neuquén, Santa Cruz, Chubut and Mendoza and review the list of participation of YPF in 25 companies. “It is very difficult to be efficient in all portfolios,” admitted from the new leadership, although they stressed that they do not plan to leave YPF Light nor of technology Y-TEC.

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In YPF They are convinced that the economic future of the country will go through Dead cow. According to estimates by the Chamber of Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production (CEPH), the Neuquén formation has the potential to produce 1.46 million barrels of Petroleum by 2030 (growth by 2.2), of which almost 1 million can be contributed by the majority state company. As for the natural gasit is calculated that the maximum production of Dead cow It would be about 450 million cubic meters per day, but the ideal objective at the beginning of the next decade would be to reach about 250 mm3/d. With that level, gas production would be multiplied by 1.6.

These levels of activity equal the trade balance of the agroindustrial sector. The numbers are sidereal. Today the difference between exports and imports is about US$4,000 millionbut by 2030 they would reach US$28,000 million.

YPF’s conventional asset sale plan

“Today Argentina is inefficient with conventional ones, we are 50-50 with shale, and that is why we are going to disinvest without breaking social peace. We want to reach 80-20 in favor of non-conventional ones,” they say in YPF. In an original comparison with tennis tournaments, the priority to become “the Novak Djokovic of oil & gas” is to play the Grand Slam (most offshore shale) and the most important ATP 500. The ATP 250 (conventional) and challenger competitions (marginal conventional areas) will be put up for sale through private tenders.

The valuation of the areas for sale is carried out by a private consulting firm. In a few days the final amount will be known, but qualified sources in the sector consulted by Energy Report They talk about a floor of US$2,000 million. “We are in a hurry to bring all the areas to the market so that there is no uncertainty, the sooner they come out the more peace of mind,” they reflected.

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Weeks ago the directors of YPF began rounds of dialogue with governors and unions. Everyone is already aware of the divestment plans underway. They know that the resources belong to the provinces, but they confirm that these sales will be agreements between private parties. According to what this media learned, operations will be carried out through private tenders starting in the second semester, but with contracts that guarantee the purchase of all production by the state oil company for a certain period of time. They will be aimed mainly at SMEs, although they do not rule out that large players will also offer.

For example in Chubut Four areas will go up for sale, one of which produces 200,000 barrels. In Santa Cruz YPF will return 10 deposits in the San Jorge Gulf. “When an area is expensive, they pay for it. If it is cheaper, the SME comes in and we buy the oil from them. We are going to encourage smaller companies to take the assets, invest and increase production, thus YPF You are not going to continue dragging your feet, losing money. The program offered is very tempting,” they insisted.

The outputs will also take into account the environmental liabilities and jobs. “YPF “It is not going to leave anyone on the street until it delivers the areas, then it will be the responsibility of the company that takes charge and the unions,” they clarified.

YPF: they promise more efficiency in the operation

He barely disembarked Horacio Marin in YPF His team measured the downstream and upstream productivity of all the oil company’s basins and compared them with companies in Mexico, Colombia and Ecuador, among other countries. “Argentina competes in gas and oil with the United States. We have the rock, which is better, but in recent years we had problems and it was not developed. If we do not work on processes, productivity is very low,” they estimated.

According to him 4×4 plan of the former Techint, in upstream the aim will be to achieve a world-class level of productivity and efficiency. This will require extensive engineering work, and between 15 and 20 rigs over the next 20 years. The prospect you accessed Energy Report estimates about 66,000 km drilled (1.5 times around the world) and a sand consumption of 130,000 million tons, are equivalent to a building with a surface area of ​​1 hectare and a height of 5,000 meters. If we take into account that each well requires at least 500 processes, the focus will be on optimizing times, producing without losses, having logistics just in time and improve real-time management of the operation.

To achieve more efficiency, Marín has already thought about applying the methodology Toyota Way, the advanced Japanese efficiency system for the automotive industry that seeks to optimize processes, based mainly on continuous improvement and respect for people. As this reporter learned, the intention is already in talks with Japanese vehicle manufacturers, who will seek to update their model to the hydrocarbon industry. It will be a revolution, they promise.

With this purpose on the table, it does not sound unreasonable that the exploration in Palermo Aike be relegated. “We have to dig more wells, pay to see. Today it is worse than Dead cow, although it is closer to the sea. If the resource is good, it will be used in the next decade,” they responded in YPF.

The same happens with the offshore off the coast of Mar del Plata. Expectations are positive, but moderate. “If the macroeconomy is not going well, it will be delayed,” they warned. “It all depends on the prices,” they added. At this time the advance with the Norwegians of Equinor is dedicated to completing the seismic studies to later drill the Argerich Well, from block CAN_100. Work begins next April with the drilling ship Valaris DS-17. The exploratory well will produce a profile of the seabed by the middle of the year. Then, the ship leaves, the well is plugged, a deep investigation is opened and in another year or two it is drilled again. Offshore exploration can take 5 to 10 years, which is the reason for the moderate expectations. However, they are also optimistic because of what happened in Brazil with Angola and the recent discoveries on the African coast in Namibia. “If oil is found, it could be another Dead cow“, they highlighted.

In downstream they will also seek to double efforts to increase the profitability of service stations and refineries. That is why building a new refinery is not in the company’s plans today either. With the transformations and investments carried out and projected in the complexes of La Plata, Luján de Cuyo and Plaza Huincul It’s enough. Currently the refining capacity is 270,000 tanks of fuel per daywhich in addition to selling it at 1,600 stations, export it to 15 countries along with other derived products.

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In fact, the big surprise that the new management of YPF in the downstream it is marketing success with stores full. As they commented in the presentation of the plan, more than 1 million soccer balls are sold per year and they are the second seller of hamburgers and coffee in the country. That is the way, they confirmed.

The LNG project, YPF’s great long-term bet

The fourth pillar of 4×4 plan is the development of marketing Liquefied natural gas (LNG) Dead cow to the world. They baptized her ARGLNG. The great novelty in this sense is that YPF will open participation in the project to other companies. “It will be viable if a single project is carried out among all the companies in the country because the infrastructure is gigantic. To compete with the US, we have to make the investment together,” said the new directors.

He agreement with Petronas plans to start exporting LNG starting in 2027, with a methane tanker. In principle it would be about 6 mm3/d. But two years later, it is expected that a floating terminal will be installed only for YPF and the Malaysians, and then another ship will arrive for the rest of the industry to use. At that time the total export would reach 40 mm3/d. Finally, the third stage involves the start-up in 2031 of a LNG onshore, which would add another additional 40 mm3/d, and together with four other strong companies in the sector, will produce a total of 80 mm3/d. The ARGLNG initiative seeks to achieve an export of 120 mm3/d for a value of US$16 billion in the next decade.

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The goal is to reach $30 billion in exports by 2030, but at the Puerto Madero Tower they know that it cannot be done alone. “We have to have leadership, but YPF It must also push the entire industry,” they stressed.



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