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What to do with dollars and pesos? The city’s gurus say

In the midst of a decline in dollar in its different quotes, the Central Bank (BCRA) yesterday completed the largest foreign currency purchase of the month, for US$ 255 million, and reserves advanced to US$ 26,602 million. Meanwhile, the Dolar blue gave up $30, at $1,085 for the purchase and $1,115 for the sale, less demanded.

With this operation in the wholesale segment, the BCRA has already purchased more than US$ 7,000 million since Javier Milei assumed the Presidency on December 10.

Financial dollars plummeted and hit one-month lows, with Cash With Settlement (CCL) below $1,200.

In this context, the MEP dollar falls $51.57 (-4.4%) to $1,121.79, after ending the previous week with a drop of $64.07 (-5.2%), the largest in two months. Thus, the gap between this exchange rate and the official rate is 35.5%.

For its part, the CCL dollar drops $51.57 (-4.4%) to $1,175.97. In this way, the gap with the official exchange rate stands at 41%.

In the market, operators agree that a certain optimism has appeared, which is why bonds and the Merval in dollars are rising, and parallel exchange rates are falling.

For Salvador Di Stefanothe financial instruments in pesos could show a much higher performance than those nominated in dollars.

“The change in monetary and exchange policy forces us to manage savings and financing in a manner that is diametrically opposed to the time of the silver plan. We must save in pesos and go into debt in dollars,” said one of the most listened to gurus in the city of Buenos Aires.

“Structurally, the climate may be favored by the projected supply of dollars from the gross crop,” said the economist. Guido Lorenzo. Although he clarified that “afterwards, it is pure market sentiment.”

“In the market it seems that the idea that the Government can straighten the economic course is gaining ground. That is, the feeling predominates that the Government program is going to give positive results. In the short term, lower inflation than expected , the primary fiscal and financial surplus for January that the Minister (of Economy) advanced Luis Caputo, and the idea of ​​a co-government with the PRO could influence in this sense,” said Lorenzo.

Argentine sovereign bonds operated firmly this Wednesday due to portfolio rearrangements awaiting January inflation data, after resuming activity due to the carnival holidays.

Analysts estimated an increase in retail prices of 21.9% for the first month of the year (it was 20.6%, according to INDEC), while a recent BCRA survey predicts a jump of 227% by 2024, from 213 Previously estimated %.

“Assets in pesos could resist more due to the greater chance of meeting commitments and the still high inflation process with the possibility of worsening due to some subsequent exchange rate adjustment,” he said. VatNet Financial Research. “Great international financial support would be almost essential, but it is difficult for it to occur without signs of political solidity,” he said.

The setback in Congress of President Milei in the treatment of the ambitious law called “omnibus”, which gave broad powers and allowed privatization of state companies among other points, creates some doubts about the next steps of the ruling party to continue with its stabilization plan economical.

The country risk of the JP Morgan bank fell 88 units, to 1,949 basis points.

Caputo recently maintained that “the economic package is made to stabilize the economy and so that people do not suffer more problems of inflation and devaluation and does not depend in any way on the (omnibus) law.”

The official dollar remained with a slight increase controlled by the BCRA of 2% monthly, which creates doubts among investors about its continuity, since high inflation causes a rapid exchange rate delay.

“The game of pesos” is sustained in a cornered economy with strong cross restrictions,” said the consulting firm. EcoGo.

In this scenario, the wholesale dollar is trading at $834.10 per unit, that is, $2.80 above Friday’s close.

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