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Why is the parallel market deflating?

Due to a sharp drop in demand, the dollar blue It was listed this Thursday with a sharp drop, to $1,075 for sale, while there was a slight rise in the rest of the variants of the North American currency.

Even though inflation moves at a rate of 20% monthly and this month is characterized by lower demand for pesos, financial contributions reached the real minimum since Javier Milei assumed the Presidency.

Economists explain the phenomenon in a excess supply and low demand by companies.

This level of fall has not been observed since the first days of January. This is a drop of $45 compared to the previous close (4%) and accumulates a decline of $135 during the first half of February (-11.3%).

On the other hand, financial exchange rates register some slight increases, after yesterday they showed drops of up to $50.

The MEP dollar through the purchase and sale of AL30 bonds is trading at $1,121.29, a daily advance of $2 (+0.2%). However, in the month it accumulated a drop of $58.7 (-5.2%).

The counted dollar with settlement (CCL) with Cedears, a tool that was highly demanded by importers to transfer greenbacks abroad and settle debts with their suppliers, is sold at $1,177.48. They are $2.5 more than yesterday, but in February it gave up a total of $71.5 (-6%).

According to an analysis by Portfolio Personal de Inversiones (PPI), the cash with liqui these days touched a new real minimum in Milei’s administration.

Even taking perspective, it plummeted 21.8% in real terms from the peak it reached on January 18, when this price reached the equivalent of $1,503 today ($1,312 nominal).

“The sharp decline in the financial dollar would be explained, at least in part, by an extraordinary supply in this market. Along these lines, we detected that the volume operated in the MAE spot dollar, proxy for the liquidation of exporters, jumped to US $500 million, the highest level since August 25 (days after the post-PASO devaluation of 08/14). This atypical volume would have its origin in the postponement of the settlement due to the Monday and Tuesday holidays,” they considered.

Currently, exporters settle 80% in the official dollar and the remaining 20% ​​in cash with settlement. Of those US$500 million settled in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC), it is estimated that around US$125 million were channeled into the financial dollar market, much higher than the average US$80 million that was recorded during the previous week. . However, private demand also increased, from US$181 million on Thursday and US$200 million on Friday, to US$248 million yesterday.

For Ignacio Morales, an analyst at Wise Capital, this phenomenon could also be explained by the dismantling of positions due to the companies’ need for pesos. Among them, the payment of tax obligations, the beginning of MSMEs’ access to the MULC and access to the Bopreal Series 2 tender (import bonus).

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