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Could it continue to fall this week or did it hit a floor, what will happen?


He Dolar blue jumped $20 last Friday and prices $1,095 in the City. He turned around that day and scored his first raise in five days. This happens after a downtrend during which had fallen $95 and had already lasted four uninterrupted dayswith a day in the middle in which it did not move, and just when the market began to wonder whether the illegal exchange rate was going to find a floor soon. Could it be that he made a footing?

He Bopreal is acting as anchorthat is, just as in the time of Sergio Massa the rates were through the roof to suck the weights, In Luis Caputo’s we have these bonuses for importers that fulfill the same role” indicates a voice from the market. Likewise, he points out that the fact that the BCRA does not stop buying dollars It is a sign that exporters are liquidating.

Vacuum cleaner of weights, on the one hand

He Head of Research at Romano Group, Salvador Vitelli, indicates that “the lack of pesos, the absorption of pesos that the BCRA is doing and the liquidation of exporters that is being seen are influencing the decline of the blue dollar today.”

And, as pointed out by economist and director of the consulting firm Sarandí, Sergio Chouza“the blue is usually arbitrated with financial quotes and the offer of exporters for the 80%/20% program, “That helps keep that market controlled in this very tight context.”

He explains that, while the mechanism that allows part of the exports to be settled through the financial market, “there is a carry opportunity for the sector and the producers, seeing that the dynamics of international prices may go downwards, are trying to liquidate now.”

Weight blender, on the other

In addition, Chouza warns that the economy is running out of pesos. “He liquefaction plan It is making the power of the monetary base less than 3 points of GDP, it is brutal on the supply of pesos in the economy and that generates less force when it comes to putting pressure on goods, services and financial or reserve assets, as is the dollar,” details the economist.

And, on the other hand, he recognizes that “it is true that The market, at some point, has believed the Government that it will manage to put the public accounts in check”. This is seen in the positive dynamics that Argentine bonds are having since the market interprets that this will result in an improvement in the macro picture.

According to Chouza, This greater confidence means that, “if the market believes that they are going to put public accounts in order, it may stop demanding dollars.”as is being seen now.

Blue dollar rebounds: did it find the floor?

All of this is driving down the price of Dolar blue in recent times, analysts explain. But, let’s return to the initial question: What is the floor? ¿Will the blue be standing at the current values And that’s why this Friday’s rebound occurs?

For the economist Federico Glustein“it is difficult to put a floor on parallel dollars at this time, since they are moving due to expectations about what is going to come supported by some economic and political measures taken along with good results in terms of reserves and reduction of deficit and inflation ”.

However, on the other hand, he warns that, although the drop in price can be read as a sign of confidence, If I broke the $1000 barrierit would be a strong message to the general context that dollars are being sold out of necessity

The economist Pablo Ferrari, for its part, indicates that “the logical floor for blue is the official exchange rate,” which is around $850 for wholesale, and $1,600 for cards. Others think that the reference should be the MEP (which trades above $1,000 and close to $1,100).

What’s coming for the blue dollar

However, Ferrari believes that, despite the downward movement of the blue and financial markets these days, the predominant force will continue to be upwardsdue to a official exchange rate almost ironedwith high inflation and expectations of a significant devaluation for March or April.

Vitelli also notes a possibility of change in the trail at that time of year, as he notes that “the demand for money is still stronga common behavior at this time of year”, but which usually begins to decrease from March and April due to seasonal issues.

“I think there “We can start to see some movement in the dollar,” he anticipates. And she maintains that gap levels of between 40% and 50% seem reasonable.while a price difference with the official price of 30%, like the one seen these days (which was around 28%) can cause there to begin to be more buyers.

Thus, an analyst from a well-known brokerage firm considers that “The floor can be between $1,000 and $1,050. “If these prices fall, the gap is almost eliminated and there arises doubt in some of the market after the harvest is settled, unify the exchange rate if everything continues like this because Milei always says that he is very close to dollarizing when he comes out to speak. “, says a source to this medium.

The truth is that, as Chouza points out, “just as trees do not grow to the sky and the roots do not reach the center of the earth, every variable in the economy has a floor and a ceiling” and blue seems to have found it around $1,050 these daysalthough how the trend continues will depend a lot on how the flow of dollars continues, the liquefaction plan and what happens with the harvest starting next month.





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