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they doubled in a month and are consolidating themselves as the big winner of investments

After publication by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) of the December inflation rate, which was 25.5% and 20.6% in Januarya decision could be expected from the BCRA in relation to the interest rate applied to placements in traditional pesos. However, the determination to keep it as it is confirmed the strategy of holding it in negative groundaligned with the economic policy led by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo.

What happens if you take a UVA today?

Assuming that a UVA is made today with a value dand $637.54 and inflation conforms to REM expectations:

  • February: 18%
  • March: 15.3%
  • April: 13%
  • may 10%
  • June: 8.2%
  • July: 8%

The fixed term would expire on August 18, 2024 with a value of $1,377.85, which represents a gain of 116%. In comparative terms, the dollar should be at $2,330 for money to be lost with this investment. So things, do a UVA today, with REM inflation expectations, could be a good investmentwith a potential profit of 116%.

The example above was shared by Daniel Osinaga on their social networks and, in dialogue with Ambit, the financial analyst explains: “The UVA has been earning a lot and it is difficult for any other instrument to match it.” He warns, on the other hand, that if the social crisis does not accelerate to a critical point and the dollar remains stable, the UVA fixed term “is going to be the big winner“.

While, Salvador Vitellihead of Research at Roman Group, He also maintains in dialogue with this medium that the UVA fixed term is today the only investment that promises to beat inflation. However, he warns that he is not infallible against that variable because he has “a time lag“. In environments of rising inflation, the gap can result in losses, since the adjustment does not necessarily follow the rhythm of inflation, he explains.

UVA fixed term, bonds, dollar or stocks?

“However, in contexts of decreasing inflation, as at present, it can be an attractive option by anchoring it to the inflation rate of the previous month,” explains Vitelli. And he explains that, although other financial instruments, like bonds and dollarscan outpace inflation, carry additional risks.

Equities and bonds, which trade based on parity rather than rates, “carry a higher risk“Warns Vitelli. The dollar is presented as a conservative option, although inflation could overcome it, especially if the exchange rate is lifted, he maintains very much in line with what Osinaga proposes.

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Graphic, courtesy of Daniel Osinaga to Ámbito.

Daniel Osinaga

Regarding bonds, the current complexity of the market is mentioned, “where some are expensive and have negative rates.” Vitelli highlights the BOPREAL option, with returns of 15% to 20% in hard currency annually, offering variety in investment choices. However, he adds that diversification in pesos It is not simple, given the variability of the market,with many expensive instruments and negative rates“, as indicated above.

There being no more: I do a UVA fixed term

“The performance of the UVA fixed term itself guarantees coverage against inflation with a certain time lag,” analyzes the economist Federico Glustein. Although he mentions the issue of resource immobility for 180 days as a disadvantage, he admits that “There are not many investments that guarantee those assured returns“, nowadays.

And he exemplifies, “local bonds are very well profiled, with parities around 45%, with an “uspide” close to 70% and with an economic driver that is being met,” in reference to the fiscal surplus and the inflationary slowdown. “Local actions are played with the same scheme,” he adds, mainly those linked to the economic situation, where they could have increases if everything falls into place quickly, but “Today that return is not guaranteed“he warns.

For Glustein, with a crawling peg that has no relationship with inflation, with the official dollar and the parallels in low values ​​”that do not visualize better profitability”, the only alternative is UVA. The economist points out that the short-term business “is to tie oneself to inflation through UVA” with bonds that give some profitability and “play locally the V that can occur in the activity“.

In conclusion, the significant increase in placements at UVA, despite the obligation to freeze the funds for 180 days, reflects the desperate search for investments that offer assured returns in a context of very high inflation. Likewise, the Central Bank’s strategy of keeping rates in negative territory, aligned with economic policy, drives the preference for instruments such as the UVA fixed term, and although it is difficult to accept it, The UVA option is presented as an attractive alternative.

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