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What number do Argentines expect for the next 12 months?


Sharp decline in the expectation of inflation. In the month of January the inflation expected by the population for the next 12 months it was 230% on average, but it fell to 170.8% in February (according to the median, it went from 150% to 100%), according to a report prepared by the Di Tella University.

This drop is generalized, by regions and by income levels. CABA and GBA show higher inflation expectations, 214.5% and 201.8% respectively, than the Interior of the country, 147.1%.

By income levels, expected inflation is lower at the lowest levels, 151.9% compared to 180.5% for those with the highest incomes.

Regarding the expected inflation for the next 30 days, in February this value reached 19.08%, falling by 6.95 percentage points compared to the January measurement (26.03%).

“We found that people have less dispersion of opinion in monthly inflation than in annual inflation. In February 2024, the interquartile range of monthly inflation was between 25% and 10%, with a median of 20%, lower than the January (25%)”, they explained from the Di Tella Finance Research Center.

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Expected inflation decreases in all regions of the country

The expected inflation for the next 12 months in GBA is 201.8%, lower than the January measurement, 214.2%. In CABA is 214.5%, 32.2 pp lower than the 246.7% reported in January. In it inside the country, there is an important decrease compared to January measurements and a big difference compared to the February measurements of CABA and GBA, reporting expectations of 147.1%. In January, the registered value was 236.1%. Like last month, in February we observed high standard deviations for all three regions, indicating a great dispersion in the responses of respondents.

Inflation according to different educational levels

During the month of February we observed that the differences in perception in the expected inflation among households of different educational levels (which also approximates the income level) was reduced. The individuals with a lower educational level showed a significant decrease in perception, going from 210.8% in January to 151.9% in February, a value even lower than that reported in December (188.2%). Those of higher educational level They also registered a reduction, going from a value of 240.5% in January to 180.5% this month.





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